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Julio Suarez
Securitisation Data Report Q4 2024 & 2024 Full Year
6 Mar 2025
AFME is pleased to circulate its Q4 2024 and 2024 Full Year Securitisation Data Report. Main findings: In 2024FY, EUR 244.9 bn of securitised product was issued in Europe, an increase of 14.8% from the EUR 213.3 bn issued in 2023. Adjusted for inflation, though, the annual growth in securitised product issuance for 2024FY was actually 11.9%. Of the EUR 244.9 bn issued during 2024FY, EUR 144.0 bn was placed, representing 58.8% of the total, compared to EUR 94.7 bn placed in 2023, representing 44.4% of the total. By asset class, SME issuance increased by 145.0% YoY in 2024FY, driven by volumes issued during the second half of 2024. Issuance in the ABS and CLO / CDO categories increased by 8.3% and 87.8% respectively, compared to 2023. In Q4 2024 specifically, EUR 63.0 bn of securitised product was issued in Europe, an increase of 31.8% from Q3 2024 and an increase of 49.3% from Q4 2023. Of the EUR 63.0 bn issued, EUR 31.1 bn was placed, representing 49.4% of the total, compared to placed issuance representing 74.1% of total issuance in Q3 2024 and 67.3% of total issuance in Q4 2023. Outstanding volumes (including CLOs) increased to EUR 1,217.6 bn at the end of Q4 2024, an increase of 2.4% QoQ and an increase of 3.1% YoY. Credit Quality: In Europe, upgrades comprised 85% of total rating actions by the main CRAs during Q4 2024, up from 78% of total rating actions during Q3 2024. STS issuance: In Q4 2024, EUR 16.5 bn of securitised product was notified as STS to ESMA and the FCA, representing 26.2% of the total issued volume in Q4 2024 (EUR 63.0 bn). Out of the EUR 16.5 bn in STS issuance, EUR 13.7 bn was placed, representing 44.1% of total (STS & non-STS) placed issuance in Q4 2024 (EUR 31.1 bn). SRT issuance: Based on SCI and RTRA data, quarterly SRT issuance in Europe reached EUR 74.0 bn in Q4 2024, an increase of 101.1% from Q3 2024 and an increase of 48.0% from Q4 2023.
Julio Suarez
AFME Q4 2024 ESG Finance Report
3 Mar 2025
AFME is pleased to circulate its European ESG Finance quarterly data report for the full year of 2024. The report provides detailed data and analysis on the growing Sustainable Finance market in Europe. The report also gives an overview of the near-term regulatory initiatives in the sector. Among the main findings of this report: ESG bond and loan issuanceaccumulated €689bnin proceeds in 2024, a 12.6% increase from 2023. Sustainability linked and Green Loans led the increase, with a 26% growth from 2023. Green bond issuance reached record high in 2024 (€300bn). Social bond and sustainability-linked bond issuance continued both their declining trend observed since 2021. European ESG SecuritisationIssuancereached €5.5bnin 2024, predominantlydrivenby Green RMBS (€2.4) and UK Green CMBS (€1.6bn). The share of ESG bonds in total bond issuance in Europe has decreased since 2022: ESG-labelled, sustainability-linked and transition bonds, represented 13% of total European bond issuance during 2024, a lower proportion from 17% in 2022.​​​​​​​ This report does not cover bonds issued in 2025 under the new European Green Bond Standard (EU GBS). So far in 2025 two EUGBS-compliant issues have been originated in Europe: A2A SpA (€500mn) and Île-de-France Mobilités (€1bn). Global ESG Fundsreached USD 40.7tn in 2024, representing a 11% increase from 2023 Global funds with an ESG mandatesaw inflows exceeding USD 300bn in 2024, driven primarily by European funds. ESG funds in the Americas saw USD 9bn in outflows, predominantly driven by Equity fund outflows. Marginal tightening of 1bps in ESG premia in 2024: The spread between corporate ESG bonds and non-sustainable benchmarks tightened throughout 2024, from 1.46 bps in January to 0.42 bps in December.
Julio Suarez
AFME Q4 2024 European High Yield and Leveraged Loan Report
27 Feb 2025
AFME is pleased to circulate its European High Yield and Leveraged Loan quarterly datareportfor the fourth quarter of 2024. Thereportprovides detailed data and analysis on the issuance and credit performance for the high yield and leveraged loan markets. Among the main findings of thisreport: European leveraged finance issuance(leveraged loans and high yield bonds) reached €118bn in proceeds in Q4 2024, a 57% increase compared to Q3 2024. This strong fourth quarter issuance contributed to European leveraged finance issuance reaching a record of €447bn for the year. High yield bond issuancetotaled €37.7bn in Q4 2024, a 140% increase from Q4 2023, showing a full recovery after the pandemic drop of issuances. In 2024, high yield bond issuance reached a total of €159bn in proceeds, the second-highest amount in our records, just below the 2021 amount. In Q4 2024, the primary use of proceeds was refinancing, accounting for 54.2% of total issuance, followed by general corporate purposes (23.1%) and LBOs/MBOs (8.9%). On a full-year basis, refinancing represented 53.24% of total use of proceeds—the highest share since 2010, when it reached 64.14%. In 2024, three sectors accounted for 60.9% of the high yield market by outstanding amount : Financial, Consumer Discretionary and Communications. Leveraged loan origination stoodat €80bn in Q4 2024, an increase compared to the Q3 2024 amount (€42bn) and a 48% YoY increase. European Leverage Loan origination reached a record of €287bn for the year. In Q4 2024, institutional spreads (3-month rolling average) tightened from 385.42 bps in October to 371.14 bps in December, while pro-rata spreads dropped more sharply from 348.5 bps to 280 bps. Institutional spreads remained above pro-rata spreads throughout 2024. The Computers & Electronics sector emerged as the leading sector by loan origination amount in Q4 2024, while the Food & Beverage and Healthcare sectors saw significant declines compared to the previous quarter (respectively 92% and 50%). Credit Quality: S&P’s trailing 12-month speculative-grade bond default rate peaked at 5.1% in November—its highest level since March 2021—before declining to 4.5% by quarter-end. Moody’s reported a similar trend, with the speculative-grade bond default rate reaching 3.56% in November before falling to 2.59% by the end of the fourth quarter. Moody's and S&Preported 4 bond defaults during Q4 2024, that were mainly due to distressed exchanges and missed payments. According to Fitch, the European leveraged loan trailing 12 months (TTM) default rate stood at 4.1% in December 2024, down from 4.39% in December 2023.
Julio Suarez
AFME Q4 2024 Equity Primary Markets and Trading Report
12 Feb 2025
AFME is pleased to circulate its Equity Primary Markets and Trading quarterly data report for the full year of 2024. The report provides detailed data and analysis on the issuance and performance for the equity markets. Among the main findings of this report: Equity underwritingon European exchanges rose 14% in 2024 compared to 2023. Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)saw a large percentage increase of 122% in 2024, generating €15bn in deal value and marking a recovery from the previous year's lows (€7bn), although still below the European annual average of c€40bn. The European issued amount was lower than that observed on US exchanges (€38.5bn) and in India (€19.5bn), but exceeded the levels recorded in China (€8bn), Japan (€5.9bn), and Australia (€2.3bn). Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A)in 2024 rose by 22% when measured as announced value, and by 10% when measured as completed value. Average daily equity tradingon European main markets and MTFs increased by 14% in 2024. Turnover ratio, calculated as annualised turnover value relative to market capitalisation, increased to 122% in Q4 2024 after a record low of 100% observed in the second half of 2023. Turnover ratio remains significantly below 2018 levels (c.150%) indicating a continued deterioration in market liquidity. DVC Update: The Double Volume Cap (DVC) mechanism seeks to limit equity trading under the reference price waiver and the negotiated transaction waiver on EU venues. According to ESMA, the number of instruments suspended under the DVC has marginally declined since February 2024, with 206 suspended instruments (168 at EU Level and 38 at TV level) as of January 2025.
Julio Suarez
DLT-Based Capital Market Report - Size and Growth of the Global DLT Wholesale Market
10 Feb 2025
AFME is pleased to present the inaugural edition of itsDistributed Ledger Technology (DLT) Market Report. This report provides a comprehensive overview of the primary DLT-based fixed income market, secondary market activity and valuations, repo transactions, and the growth of the tokenized fund industry alongside other tokenized assets. Although the adoption of DLT in capital markets is currently modest relative to the size of global capital markets, its recent rapid growth and the emergence of new market participants and product offering present substantial opportunities for future expansion. Among the main findings of this report: DLT fixed income issuance(including bonds, bills, commercial paper, covered bonds, and structured notes)reached€3bn in 2024, a 260% increase compared to 2023 (€848mn issued). This growth was primarily driven by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) DLT Trials, which accumulated €1bn and €0.8bn respectively representing 60% of the total fixed income instruments issued in 2024. However, excluding central bank trials, DLT-based fixed income issuance doubled compared to the 2023 amount. Financial issuers contributed with the largest issued amount with 47% of the total, followed by SSAs (43%) and corporates (10%). In 2024, the majority of the issuance (75% of the total) was originated on public-permissioned blockchains, with the platforms SDX and HSBC Orion contributing the largest share of digital fixed income issuance. Green bond DLT issuance accumulated a total of €483mn in 2024. This was predominantly driven by the Hong Kong Authority in a series of multi-currency tranches issued on HSBC's Orion platform. Price discovery and valuation:Price discovery in the DLT bond market faces constraints due to limited trading activity. Observable pricing data is predominantly available for instruments with traditional exchange listings. Available yield data suggests that DLT bond yields generally align with comparable conventional instruments, with limited instances of yield divergence of a temporary “e-premia” spread differential. Recent DLT-based repo transactionsexecuted by global central banks' trials have highlighted several benefits, primarily from the almost instantaneous settlement execution. While comprehensive data on these transactions are still scarce, platforms such as Broadridge DLR have reported to process c$50bn per day in DLT-based repo transactions. More than€2.1bn in assets under management(AUM) are globally registered on 31 tokenised funds as of end-2024. The United States leads globally as the main country domicile for tokenised funds, including the three largest funds held by Hashnote (AUM standing at €569mn), BlackRock (€500mn), and Franklin Templeton (€406mn). More than 80% of the AUM was allocated into US and EU Government securities (€1.8bn), while only a small portion was invested in other asset classes, such as Equity, Crypto Assets, Real Estate, among others Market data indicates other use cases oftokenised instruments, including ABS (market cap at $11.5bn), equity ($17.3bn), real estate ($0.3bn), and private credit ($1.8bn).
Julio Suarez
AFME Government Bond Data Report Q3 2024
16 Dec 2024
AFME is pleased to circulate its Q3 2024 Government Bond Data Report. Report highlights include: EU Member States and the UK issued EUR 898 bn in bonds and bills throughout 3Q24,which represents a decrease of 5.6% (QoQ) compared to 2Q24, and an increase of 5.7% (YoY) compared to 3Q23. In Slovenia, an inaugural government digital bond was issued in July 2024, representing the first time a European sovereign has issued a digital bond based on distributed ledger technology. Record trading volumes continued in European (EU+UK) government bonds during Q3 2024,according to MarketAxess TraX, with trading increasing 3% (YoY) and decreasing 10% (QoQ). In 2024 to date, average daily trading volumes were up 13%, compared to 2023, and up 27% compared to 2022. Average daily trading volumes in 2024 to date continue to be the highest in the past six years following consistently high trading volumes reported since 2022. Outstanding amount of European ESG government bonds reached EUR 527 bn during 3Q24.Volumes were driven by tap issuance by Germany (EUR 4.0 bn), the UK (EUR 3.6 bn), Belgium (EUR 1.1 bn), Denmark (EUR 0.4 bn), and Ireland (EUR 0.3 bn) and the European Commission (EUR 5.0 bn). In Slovenia, an inaugural dual-tranche social samurai bond was issued in August 2024, representing the first social samurai bond ever issued by a sovereign. During 3Q24 there were2 long-term credit rating upgrades for European countries and no downgrades. This follows 1 upgrade and no downgrades in 1Q24, 2 upgrades and 4 downgrades in 2Q24, bringing the 2024 year-to-date total to 8 upgrades and 5 downgrades (there were 3 further upgrades and 1 downgrade in 4Q24). Croatia continued to increase the quality of its credit profile throughout 2024, with two of the main credit rating agencies upgrading the credit rating of the country in Q3 2024. There were 2 entries and 1 exit in European primary dealership from October to December 2024 with a net change of 1.Changes in primary dealership affected sovereign debt markets in Germany, Italy and Portugal. This follows 2 entries and 1 exit in total of banks to primary dealer systems from January to October 2024. After the most recent changes, there are now 22 primary dealers in the Italian sovereign market, representing the highest number of active participants since June 2008. The average bid-cover ratio (demand/amount allocated) was 2.47 in 3Q24,a decrease of 1.2% (QoQ) from 2Q24 and an increase of 18.8% from 3Q23 (YoY).
Julio Suarez
AFME ESG Finance Report Q3 2024
9 Dec 2024
AFME is pleased to circulate its European ESG Finance quarterly data report for the third quarter of 2024. The report provides detailed data and analysis on the growing Sustainable Finance market in Europe. The report also gives an overview of the near-term regulatory initiatives in the sector. Among the main findings of this report: ESG bond and loan issuance in Q3'24 surpasses 2023 but remain below 2021-2022 levels: ESGbond and loan issuance totalled €116bn, a 6% increase from Q3 2023 (YoY) and a 27% decrease from Q2 2024 (QoQ). Green bond issuance on track to reach highest issuance, while sustainable, social and sustainability-linked bond issuance is on the decline. Positive trend for the European ESG Securitisation market, with issuance at its highest level since 2021. German issuers led in total loan and bond origination YtD, closely followed by French issuers. Notably, c. 58% of sustainability-linked bonds was originated in Italy and almost half of ESG bonds were issued in France or Germany. The share of ESG bonds in total bond issuance in Europe has plateaued, or even decreased since 2021: ESG bond issuance, including ESG-labelled, sustainability-linked and transition bonds, represented 14% of total European bond issuance during 2024 YtD, a lower proportion from 14.2% in 2023 and 18% in 2022. On a year-to-date basis, European green bonds reached the highest H1 issued amount on records. However, relative to the total European bond issued amount, its proportion has continued at c10% since 2021. Record-High global ESG Assets Under Management (AuM) driven by strong fund inflows: Global funds with an ESG mandate reached $10.5tn as of Q3 2024, representing a 8.7% increase from Q2 2024 and a 18.2% increase from Q3 2023. The quarterly increase can be attributed to the positive net inflow of $122.75bn in ESG funds in the third quarter of the year.
Julio Suarez
AFME Q3 2024 Prudential Data Report
6 Dec 2024
AFME is pleased to circulate its Prudential quarterly data report for the third quarter of 2024. The report presents the latest data on prudential capital, leverage, and liquidity ratios for European GSIBs, and illustrates the performance of debt and contingent convertible (CoCo) securities issued by European banks. Among the main findings of this report: Key capital and liquidity ratios, high and stable : The CET1 ratio of European GSIBs finalised Q3 2024 at 14.17%, 1bp below levels observed in Q2 2024. The end-point T1 ratio slightly increased during Q3 2024 (+2bps). The leverage ratio of EU banks has been virtually unchanged since 2023, fluctuating around 4.3% Strong AT1 bond issuance: As of 2024 year-to-date, European banks have issued a total of €19.26bn in AT1 capital. Issuance in Q3 2024 accounted for 44.7% of this total, reaching €8.7 bn. This reflects a 127% year-over-year increase and a 44% rise compared to the previous quarter. AT1 risk premia stable to pre-turbulence levels, standing at 339bps, 57bps below the levels observed prior the turbulence episode in March 2023. AFME priorities for banking regulations AFME has recently published a new report setting out a proposal for priorities for banking regulation in the new EU legislative Cycle. This comes at a pivotal moment, as the new EU policy cycle provides an opportunity to assess the current regulatory framework and align it with the EU’s broader strategic objectives. This should be done with the objective of enabling all banks operating in the EU to remain competitive in an increasingly fragmented global landscape. With that in mind, AFME has identified some of the key issues with respect to the EU’s banking regulatory framework. See full paper here
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